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Housing Demand |
How much will housing demand grow in Ireland? |
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It is estimated that Ireland’s population will exceed 5 million by 2015, representing an average annual increase of around 2% and a 20% increase on the 2006 census figure of 4.23m.
In addition, numbers in the peak house buying age group of 25 to 34 years are increasing at a rate of 5.8% per annum, versus 0.3% elsewhere in the Eurozone. Numbers at work in this age group are rising by 6.5% per annum – indicating ample scope for continuing housing demand. The sheer weight of numbers in this age group indicates sustained activity at the macro economic level. Recent reports show that demand for quality rental supply has increased. Year to date rental increases have averaged 9.9%. Private sector rents have increased by up to 20% in key growth areas. Rental growth exceeded house price growth in 2007 for the first time since 2002. |
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| Population Change 1986-2015 |
| What is driving Housing Demand? |
| Demographic and Housing Trends |
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| Population Change 1986-2015 |
Overall, housing continues to play a crucial role in shaping our urban and rural environment. Throughout this past decade, there has been significant natural increase in population and in-migration to Ireland. Demand for housing has prevailed as a result of the continued long-term decline in size of private households. Household size fell from 2.94 in 2002 to 2.81 in 2006 (compared to an EU average of 2.6). And, perhaps less constructively, Ireland’s infrastructure deficiencies have been brought into sharp focus by the increasing levels of suburbanisation development.
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1986 |
1996 |
2006 |
2015 |
| Population |
3,540,643 |
3,626,087 |
4,239,848 |
5,000,000 |
Population Change (+/-) |
+97,238 |
+92,035 |
+322,512 |
+760,152 |
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| What is driving Housing Demand? |
- Demand driver: Economic, demographic and social change
- Demand driver: Natural increase in population and significant in-migration to Ireland
- Demand Driver: Continued long-term decline in size of private households fell from 2.94 in 2002 to 2.81 in 2006 (compared to EU average of 2.6)
- Demand Driver: Increasing suburbanisation
Indicative Housing Completions 2005 – 2012
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| Demographic and Housing Trends |
Table of trends
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1981 |
1986 |
1991 |
1996 |
2002 |
2006 |
| Population |
3,443,405 |
3,540,643 |
3,525,719 |
3,626,087 |
3,917,336 |
4,239,848 |
Population Change (+/-) |
n/a |
+97,238 |
-14,925 |
+92,035 |
+138,182 |
+322,512 |
| Natural Increase (+/-) |
n/a |
+169,120 |
+119,245 |
+92,035 |
+138,182 |
+130,512 |
| Net Migration (+/-) |
n/a |
-71,883 |
-134,170 |
+8,200 |
+153,067 |
+192,000 |
| Independent Households |
880,000 |
976,000 |
1,029,000 |
n/a |
1,288,000 |
1,469,521 |
Note: natural increase refers to excess of births over deaths, net migration refers to immigrants minus emigrants
Source: CSO and EU
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